MODULE 2 · LESSON 1 / 5
Momentum Index™ — formula and interpretation
⏱ 12 min
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The 4 components of the Momentum Index™
The Momentum Index™ is not an arbitrary score — it is computed from four real analytical factors, each capturing a different dimension of innovation dynamics.
| # | Component | What it measures | Strategic interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Filing CAGR | Compound annual growth rate of patents filed over 3–5 years | Strongest signal — indicates durable structural acceleration |
| 2 | S-curve position | Where the field sits on its adoption curve (emergence → saturation) | Captures the maturity of the innovation trajectory |
| 3 | Recent YoY growth | Average year-over-year growth rate over the last 3 years | Captures recent acceleration beyond the long-term trend |
| 4 | Filing volume | Total number of patents, log-normalized | Weights the signal's reliability — a large volume reinforces it |
Methodological note
CAGR carries the heaviest weight (0.35) because it captures longitudinal dynamics; S-curve position (0.30), recent YoY growth (0.20), and volume (0.15) complete the signal.
The 3 labels — when do they apply?
The Momentum Index™ produces one of the three following labels, derived directly from the thresholds defined in the analytical system.
⚠ Common pitfall
HIGH momentum ≠ guaranteed investment. A technology in the mature phase with a HIGH Momentum Index™ can mean a rebound or a trap — the lifecycle context is indispensable.
Common pitfall — isolated spike ≠ sustained momentum
A new regulation, a court ruling, or a patent war between two players can generate a one-year filing spike — without reflecting genuine technological momentum.
Real momentum requires 3 consecutive years of sustained growth in CAGR. An isolated spike followed by stagnation often produces a MEDIUM score despite the appearance of acceleration.
How to verify
CRISPR case — real acceleration
CRISPR gene editing is a perfect illustration of authentic HIGH momentum. The reference dataset contains 197 patents, positioned in the acceleration phase with an Openness Score™ in the CONTESTED band (55–79).
CRISPR Gene Editing
Case study — verified acceleration
Dataset
197 patents
Lifecycle
acceleration
Openness Score™
CONTESTED (55–79)
Observed signal
HIGH Momentum — 2 years ahead of the press
Key insight: The Momentum Index™ showed a HIGH signal on CRISPR while mainstream media coverage was still limited. This kind of early directional signal illustrates the value of patent data — it can reflect R&D intensity ahead of the media consensus, depending on dataset coverage.
Momentum N/A — what it means
FR
Momentum N/A n’est pas une erreur. C’est une décision de qualité analytique : Stratensight refuse de calculer un CAGR sur une fenêtre temporelle insuffisante plutôt que de produire un chiffre peu fiable. Solution : étendre la période à 10 ans ou All.
EN
Momentum N/A is not an error. It is an analytical quality decision: Stratensight refuses to compute CAGR on insufficient temporal data rather than producing an unreliable figure. Solution: extend period to 10 yr or All.
Key takeaways from this lesson
- Momentum Index™: 4 components — CAGR (0.35), S-curve (0.30), recent YoY (0.20), volume (0.15)
- Labels: HIGH (70–100) · MEDIUM (45–69) · LOW (0–44)
- An isolated spike ≠ real momentum — it takes 3+ years of sustained growth
- HIGH momentum ≠ guaranteed investment — always cross-check with the lifecycle
QUIZ DE VALIDATION
1. A Momentum Index™ of 40 maps to which label?
2. Which component has the greatest impact on the Momentum Index™?
3. Is a one-year filing spike enough to conclude a HIGH Momentum?