MODULE 2 · LESSON 2 / 5
Lifecycle Position™ — the 5 phases and the S-curve
⏱ 14 min
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The technology S-curve
Every technology follows an S-curve. Stratensight automatically measures which of the 5 phases you are in via the Lifecycle Position™. The shape of this curve is universal — from semiconductors to gene therapies.
Patents/yr
│
▲ │ ●●● growth (weight 90)
│ │ ●●●
│ │ ●●●
│ │ ●●● acceleration (weight 75)
│ │ ●●●
│ │ ●●● emerging (weight 45)
│ │●●● research (weight 20)
│ └─────────────────────────────────── time
mature → weight 35
The curve passes through a slow ramp-up phase (research/emerging), rapid growth (acceleration/growth), then a plateau (mature). Each phase receives a weight in the Decision Score — that weight is a coefficient in the formula, not a scale of attractiveness: mature weighs less than emerging.
The 5 phases and their weights in the Decision Score
Here are the 5 phases recognized by the Lifecycle Position™, with their exact weights in the Decision Score formula.
Pioneer territory
Filings are sparse and mostly academic. The curve has not lifted off yet.
Nascent signal
First industrial filings. The annual volume starts to grow.
Filing explosion
The annual volume grows strongly. The number of assignees grows with it.
Optimal phase
Volume stays high, growth slows. The set of assignees stabilises.
Established market
The annual volume plateaus or declines. The LOW COMPOSITE PACE guard can fire with a LOW Momentum.
How to identify the phase from a report
The Lifecycle Position™ is displayed in several zones of the Stratensight report. Here is the recommended reading order to confirm the phase.
Lifecycle badge in Zone 1
Intelligence Snapshot™ — first visible element, shows the phase as a colored badge
Sparkline in Zone 2
Momentum Analysis — the filing curve visually confirms the S-curve shape
Conviction signal
acceleration + HIGH Momentum Index™ = strong conviction signal. Both must converge.
What each role checks first
The Lifecycle Position™ does not change with your role. What changes is the question you ask next.
Investor
acceleration + growth
weight 75–90
Check that Momentum confirms the phase — both must converge
R&D Engineer
research + emerging
weight 20–45
Check CPC diversity — a whitespace can be a scope artefact
Executive
avoid mature + LOW
weight 35
LOW COMPOSITE PACE guard may fire — check the momentum
Quantum Computing case — emerging phase
Quantum Computing illustrates the nascent signal in the emerging. The reference dataset contains ~500 patents, with an OPEN Openness Score™ (above 80), signalant un espace peu concentré.
Quantum Computing
Case study — emerging → acceleration transition
Dataset
~500 patents
Lifecycle
emerging → vers acceleration
Openness Score™
OPEN (≥80)
Signal
Rising new-entrant ratio
Key signal: The transition from emerging toward acceleration is confirmed by the rising new-entrant ratio. To verify before reading the trend: that the latest year is fully indexed.
Technology Maturity Priors — when the lifecycle is adjusted
For certain well-established technologies (wind, solar PV, lithium-ion, 5G...), the research phase would be clearly wrong even if recent data suggested it (declining filings, short window, partial indexing). Stratensight then applies a minimum maturity adjustment: the phase is raised to the industry consensus, and a visible transparency badge indicates that the lifecycle comes from a prior, not from the patents alone.
Rule: a prior can onlyimprove the phase (research → acceleration, for example). It can never lower it. The numeric value of the Lifecycle Position™ stays unchanged — only the phase label is adjusted.
Examples: Wind Energy → growth, Lithium-Ion Batteries → growth, 5G → growth, CRISPR → acceleration.
Key takeaways from this lesson
- 5 phases: research(20) → emerging(45) → acceleration(75) → growth(90) → mature(35)
- Weights are not a scale of attractiveness: mature (35) weighs less than emerging (45)
- Mature + LOW momentum → LOW COMPOSITE PACE guard forced by the Decision Engine
- Lifecycle must always be cross-checked with Momentum Index™ for a conviction signal
QUIZ DE VALIDATION
1. Which Lifecycle Position™ phase carries the highest weight in the Decision Score?
2. An Executive facing a 'mature' technology with a LOW Momentum Index™ should...
3. The 'acceleration' phase receives weight [X] in the Decision Score.