MODULE 2 · LESSON 5 / 5
Decision Engine™ — the strategic attention scale
9 min read
From 4 scores to 1 attention level
The Decision Engine™ combines all four proprietary scores into a single Decision Score /100, then places the domain on a strategic attention scale. No level is ever produced without a confidence context.
Momentum Index™ × 0.35
+ Lifecycle Position™ (weight) × 0.25
+ Intelligence Grade™ × 0.25
+ Openness Score™ × 0.15
SOURCE: ground_truth.json → decision_engine.formula_weights
One scale, four rungs
The four rungs are not four independent labels: they form a single nested scale. Each rung requires ALL of its conditions to be met simultaneously — a high score in one dimension alone does not move you up. The higher the rung, the more the signals point the same way.
CONVERGING SIGNALS
Momentum ≥70 AND Openness ≥40 AND Grade ≥70
All three measures clear the high threshold together.
PARTIAL CONVERGENCE
Momentum ≥45 AND Openness ≥25 AND Grade ≥50
All three clear the low threshold, none the high one.
ISOLATED SIGNAL
Momentum ≥25
One dimension holds — filing dynamics. The others do not follow.
LOW FILING ACTIVITY
Below all thresholds
Filing activity observed over the period is low.
Blocking guards — algorithmic safety
Even if the Decision Score formula produces a high number, blocking guards can move the domain down one or more rungs when data quality or market structure indicates the signal does not support the rung reached.
BLOCKING GUARDS
intelligence_grade < 40→INVEST → EXPLOREpatent_count < 50→INVEST/MONITOR → EXPLOREstage == mature AND momentum < 40→→ AVOIDopenness < 20 AND verdict == INVEST→INVEST → MONITORstage == research AND verdict == INVEST→INVEST → MONITORWhy guards exist
A level without confidence context is misleading. Announcing CONVERGING SIGNALS on a 30-patent dataset with a LOW Intelligence Grade™ would pass a coincidence off as a convergence. Guards move the domain DOWN one or more rungs when signal reliability does not support the rung reached — same scale, travelled downwards.
Layer C — Tier gate (Phase 5.3)
Beyond Layer A (the rung from AND logic) and Layer B (blocking guards), Layer C subordinates the user-facing level to evidence_certainty — a categorical reliability label (HIGH / MODERATE / LOW / VERY_LOW) derived from the Intelligence Grade™ framework. A level is never presented without a coherent confidence signal attached. The mapping is categorical, not threshold-based.
Why this exists: before it was introduced, an output such as « rung 1 + Confidence 50 » was structurally possible, because AND logic operates on raw scores while evidence_certainty derives from orthogonal signals (critical issues, temporal bunching, source coverage). Layer C makes certainty inseparable from the rung shown, so every output is auditable.
EVIDENCE_CERTAINTY → TIER → OUTPUT
The rung and the certainty are two axes
The natural mistake is to assume a low certainty must lower the rung. It does not: the rung says what the signals show, the certainty says how far to trust it. Two quantities, two displays — which is why they never merge into one word. A domain can sit at rung 1 with moderate certainty: that reads « the signals converge, and that convergence is still to be confirmed », never « the signals half-converge ».
THE RUNG
What the signals show. Four rungs, from all four measures converging down to low filing activity.
THE CERTAINTY
How far to trust it. Four tiers, derived from the Intelligence Grade™ framework. It never lowers the rung.
TIER_LOW — rung kept, marked conditional
When evidence_certainty is LOW, the dataset is rich enough to compute every score, but Signal Integrity warnings limit audit-grade confidence. The rung is kept and displayed as {signal} — Conditional in amber (for example PARTIAL CONVERGENCE — Conditional). Resolve the flagged Signal Integrity warnings to lift certainty — the rung itself does not move for that reason.
TIER_VERY_LOW — no rung issued
When evidence_certainty is VERY_LOW, the input itself is genuinely unusable (typically fewer than 10 patents, temporal coverage under 1 year, or structurally corrupted). No rung is issued; the output is INSUFFICIENT_DATA — the scale does not apply. Not to be confused with rung 4, LOW FILING ACTIVITY : rung 4 says the DOMAIN files little; INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE says the DATASET cannot measure it. Few signals in the domain is not few data about the domain.
A confident rung can still carry a caveat
The tier gate above attaches certainty to the rung when the certainty drops. But some audit flags are grade-neutral: they leave the rung and the confidence intact, because the data is sound. Only their reading would be incoherent. CE6 is the clearest case: the Momentum Index™ can stay HIGH on a strong multi-year trend while the most recent is already declining. The rung can legitimately stay at 1 with HIGH certainty — but printing « move fast » next to that contradiction would be dishonest. So Stratensight keeps the rung and the confidence, then surfaces the contradiction in « Why this decision » and tempers the suggested follow-up to « signals converge, but reconcile the flagged contradiction before going further ». A high rung and a « reconcile first » caveat can coexist, by design: the page never contradicts its own audit.
No rung without confidence
Every level in Stratensight comes with a confidence indicator. This is a core design principle: the rung says what the signals show; the confidence says how far to trust it.
The confidence is derived from the Intelligence Grade™, dataset volume, and the number of blocking guards that were triggered. If multiple guards fire, the confidence drops even if the raw Decision Score is high.
✓
Module 2 complete
You now master all five Stratensightscores: Momentum Index™, Lifecycle Position™, Openness Score™, Intelligence Grade™, and the Decision Engine™.
Key takeaways
- Formula (indicative): Momentum×0.35 + Lifecycle×0.25 + Grade×0.25 + Openness×0.15
- Rung 1 requires 3 simultaneous conditions: Momentum ≥70, Openness ≥40, Grade ≥70
- Blocking guards move the domain down one or more rungs when data-quality, volume or concentration thresholds are violated
- Layer C attaches certainty to the rung shown — no output is ever produced without a coherent confidence band (TIER_HIGH and TIER_MODERATE preserve the rung, TIER_LOW preserves it marked « Conditional » amber, TIER_VERY_LOW issues no rung and shows INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE)
- No rung is ever produced without a confidence score — the confidence says how far to trust it
QUIZ DE VALIDATION
1. In the Decision Score formula, which component has the highest weight?
2. Momentum=80, Openness=55, Intelligence Grade=75 — which rung?
3. What happens when Intelligence Grade™ < 40 and the computed rung is 1?
4. A dataset of 45 patents reaches rung 2. What happens?
5. Why does Stratensight never produce a rung without a confidence score?
6. An Openness Score™ of 15 combined with rung 1 triggers which guard?
7. Which lifecycle phase receives the highest weight in the Decision Score?
8. What is the purpose of blocking guards in the Decision Engine™?
9. Momentum=80, Openness=60, Intelligence Grade=75 — all three clear their rung-1 thresholds. But Openness=30 instead — what happens?
10. mature lifecycle + Momentum Index™ LOW (< 45) forces which rung?
11. Rung 1 with evidence_certainty = MODERATE — what does the user-facing surface display?
12. evidence_certainty = VERY_LOW — what does the user-facing surface display, whatever the computed rung?